Search results for "Global VAR"
showing 4 items of 4 documents
Macro-uncertainty and financial stress spillovers in the Eurozone
2020
Abstract This paper studies macro-uncertainty and financial distress spillovers within the Eurozone. We propose a novel methodology to derive the indices of spillovers, by using a Global Vector autoregressive model fitted to data sampled at mixed-frequencies. We find that macro-uncertainty and financial stress are relatively disconnected in the Eurozone. We also show that connectedness between core and periphery Eurozone countries mainly operates through financial stress and it decreases since the outbreak of the Eurozone sovereign debt crisis (with an increasing role played by peripheral countries). As a result, investors and policymakers should monitor separately macro-uncertainty and fin…
External imbalances from a GVAR perspective
2021
In this paper we study the drivers governing external disequilibria through a Global VAR (GVAR) analysis applied to a group of 24 countries during the period 1972-2017. The GVAR methodology is particularly well suited for our research question. First, it permits to measure the effects of both, domestic and foreign country-specific shocks. Second, it allows to analyze not only the long-run relationships, but also the dynamics through generalized impulse-response functions. Third, it enables to test many hypotheses from a macroeconomic perspective and the existence of spillovers. Our results show evidence of international financial integration in terms of the fulfillment of the real interest …
Housing market shocks in italy: A GVAR approach
2020
Abstract In this paper, we use a Global Vector Autoregression (GVAR) model to assess the spatio-temporal mechanism of house price spillovers, also known as “ripple effect”, among 93 Italian provincial housing markets, over the period 2004 − 2016 . In order to better capture the local housing market dynamics, we use data not only on house prices but also on transaction volumes. In particular, we focus on estimating, to what extent, exogenous shocks, interpreted as negative housing demand shocks, arising from 10 Italian regional capitals, impact on their house prices and sales and how these shocks spill over to neighbours housing markets. The negative housing market demand shock hitting the G…
Complex ecological models with simple dynamics: From individuals to populations
1994
The aim of this work is to study complex ecological models exhibiting simple dynamics. We consider large scale systems which can be decomposed into weakly coupled subsystems. Perturbation Theory is used in order to get a reduced set of differential equations governing slow time varying global variables. As examples, we study the influence of the individual behaviour of animals in competition and predator-prey models. The animals are assumed to do many activities all day long such as searching for food of different types. The degree of competition as well as the predation pressure are dependent upon these activities. Preys are more vulnerable when doing some activities during which they are …